Home > Uncategorized > Profiles of Local Consumer Commerce December 2015 Insights from 12 Billion Transactions in 15 U.S. Metro Areas

Profiles of Local Consumer Commerce December 2015 Insights from 12 Billion Transactions in 15 U.S. Metro Areas



Executive Summary New research from the JPMorgan Chase Institute shows that the year-to-year growth of consumers’ everyday spending on most goods and services in 15 major U.S. metropolitan areas has slowed dramatically, from 5 percent in the second quarter of 2014 to 0.5 percent in the comparable period in 2015. This slowdown in everyday spending growth is one of several puzzling signals in the data on the U.S. economy. Gross domestic product has increased every quarter except for Q1 2014 in the past four years, but in fits and starts. Unemployment is down and corporate profits have largely been solid. In real terms, retail sales have also grown every quarter since the 2009 recession, though inconsistently and at a slowing rate. Within the sector, spending growth has differed significantly by category. For example, auto sales have grown strongly in recent months, but several big chains and other merchants are forecasting a tough 2015 holiday season. A new, powerful data asset—the JPMorgan Chase Institute “Profiles of Local Consumer Commerce”— allows us to shed light on these ambiguous indicators. With this new data set, we can analyze important characteristics of the transactions between consumers and businesses at the point of sale and at the neighborhood, city, and metropolitan-area levels. In this initial report, we use these data to explore the marked 4.5 percentage point slowdown in the growth of local consumer commerce between Q2 2014 and Q2 2015. Specifically, we identify the contribution of different consumer and business segments to this slowdown. -4.5pp 5.0% 15 Metro Area Local Consumer Commerce YOY Growth Q2 2014 Q2 2015 0.5% Age How do older and younger consumers spend dierently? Income Does spending grow more quickly for higher income consumers or lower income consumers? Business Size Do large businesses contribute more to spending growth than Small and Medium Enterprises? Consumer Residence Do consumers who live in the same area as a business spend more or less than those who live farther away? Product Type How does spending dier across durable goods, nondurable goods, and services? 15 Cities 12.4 Billion Debit & Credit Card Transactions 34 Months October 2012 to July 2015 48 Milli

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